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Unknown
Welcome to the Yunus and Soraya Nizari Center for Israel Studies at UCLA. We are so honored to have all of you with us for the Harry C Sigman Annual Distinguished Lecture this evening, featuring Ambassador Ronen Hoffman, who I'll have the pleasure of introducing in a minute. Just a few thank yous. Before we begin, I want to thank the incredible staff here at the Fowler Museum who have been amazing.
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Unknown
I want to thank the tremendous help from the public safety team here at UCLA, the incredible.
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Unknown
The students who are here, many students helping us out. Thank you to the students. Thank you to our students who came to listen.
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Unknown
Thank you to the staff of the Nazarene Center, who have been working for weeks on this months. And very special thanks to our executive Director, Maura Resnick. And to Jane, I know I'll pronounce your last name correctly. Matthew, thank you very, very much for being for being here and for all the hard work you did before. I introduce our distinguished lecturer, Ambassador Hoffman at the University has requested that I read a public service announcement.
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Unknown
We live in interesting times, and please bear with me as I read this announcement that the university has requested. My name is Steve Zipper. I'm the faculty director of the center.
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Unknown
Thank you all for attending this event. Freedom of speech, which allows for the open exchange of ideas, is a core value to all of us here at UCLA. As a learning environment, we never shy away from disagreement. Respectful disagreement. Each member of our community has the right to present speakers and programs, as we are doing this evening, as well as the right peaceably to protest.
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Unknown
Today's speaker from the center is here at the official invitation of the University, and we understand that his presence here may prompt disagreement among our community. We recognize and value the rights of people to express their views, but this university will not permit a response or a protest that is so disruptive, so as to effectively silence the invited speaker and prevent them from communicating with you, our willing audience.
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Unknown
Just a bit more. Campus officials are present and prepared to approach any individual or group who create a disruption in the room. They will be warned first, and if the disruption continues, they will be required to leave and could be subject to arrest by the University police department. Those individuals could be held accountable under UCLA policies and rules, as well as any applicable State of California criminal laws.
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Unknown
Our goal tonight is to have a peaceful and respectful and educational event, so please be mindful of other audience members and thank you for attention. Your attention. We have made some three by five cards and some small pencils available. We're going to collect your questions for the ambassador. We don't have the ability, unfortunately, to let people stand up and ask questions.
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Unknown
That tends to take a little bit of time. I want to give as many of your questions a chance to be asked as possible, which is why we're going to do it in writing. Okay. Now, our distinguished speaker, Ronen Hoffman. Ambassador Hoffman is an Israeli scholar, public figure and diplomat with a long and distinguished career in government and academia.
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Unknown
He served most recently as Israel's ambassador to Canada from 2021 to 2023. Appointed to that role by former Prime Minister Jair Lapid. Doctor Hoffman began his career in government at the Israeli consulate in Atlanta. Later during the 1992 elections, serving as a personal aide to the late Yitzhak Rabin, and during the 1990s, Doctor Hoffman was a member and coordinator of the Israeli delegation to the peace talks with Syria, serving under both Prime Minister Rabin and Prime Minister Ehud Barak.
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Unknown
In 1997, Doctor Hoffman co-founded the Institute for counterterrorism at what used to be called the IDC. Now Reichman University inherits Leah B became its first general director. He completed his PhD in the Department of War Studies at King's College London and spent many, many years teaching, lecturing, organizing the Herd Celia conference at IDC focusing on foreign affairs, diplomacy and political psychology.
00:05:04:10 - 00:05:29:18
Unknown
And remember those two words political psychology. You will hear more about that from Doctor Hoffman this evening. In 2012, he joined the then newly formed Teed. There is a future party and was elected to the 19th Knesset, where he served on the Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee and chaired the Subcommittee on Foreign Policy and Public Diplomacy. Finally, Doctor Hoffman, what's he doing now?
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Unknown
You may be wondering, he's currently serving as president of the Electric Infrastructure Security Council, which is leading international resilience cooperation to address large scale threats, including scenarios such as electromagnetic pulse bombs, which could result in catastrophic global consequences. Here's what we're going to do. Doctor Hoffman is going to come out now and take over. I'm going to leave.
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Unknown
I'll come back and do Q&A. But first I have to turn off the screen behind me. I have to put this.
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Unknown
Thank you very much for coming. Thank you. The center. Thank you. Sharon. Thank you. Steve. Thank you. Thank you. Thank you. And thank you for attending and for coming for this conversation. I.
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Unknown
I feel honored to be here. And I first want to start by telling you a simple thing, but it's not just simple. I want to acknowledge that we in Israel sometimes take for granted the love, the support and and the help that we are getting from the Jewish communities around the world and, and mainly the American Jewish community.
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Unknown
And I think we should not take it for granted. And I just want to express how grateful we are in Israel. And I personally, as an Israeli formal Israeli official, maybe future Israeli official, how how much I, I respect it and I'm grateful to you for all the love and support for for the country. And it's great to feel among your family, and it's great to feel that we are one big family.
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Unknown
It's great to feel that love and support that you give us. So thank you very much for that.
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Unknown
From time to time, speakers open important events by saying we are living in dramatic times and they do it in a way to capture some attention from from the very first moment. But I think that the truth is that tonight I don't need to use that tactics, because when it comes to Israel and to the Middle East, we truly are living in dramatic times.
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Unknown
And, you know, I look at the two and a half years, maybe three years that have really compressed an extraordinary intensity, something that nations usually don't really go through in such a short period of time. Before the war, we had a constitutional crisis. The government all of a sudden decided that they are going to shake the very foundations of of our, of our, I would say, liberal democracy.
00:08:20:23 - 00:08:49:07
Unknown
And it really, by the way, the democracy allows the government to do that. Right. So that's part of the beauty of the democracy. But I'm just saying that before the war, the millions of people of Israel, millions of people went we had nationwide protests everywhere as part of the lively democracy in Israel. And people were very emotionally involved and engaged in what's going on in there, overwhelmed with it.
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Unknown
And, you know, from both sides. And there was tension and, and a very, very kind of tense time in Israel at that time. And then we woke up to that horrible morning on October 7th. We had a terrible massacre and and the hot 251 people, you know, captured hostages. You know the stories. I don't need to repeat it, but just created such a psychological, psychological effect of everyone in Israel and everyone here in the Jewish community is also around the world.
00:09:22:02 - 00:09:47:06
Unknown
And then the, the, the deals to try to release the hostages and the debate in the government. Some ministers supported, some rejected. And and the, you know, the, the group of of volunteers who really jumped to help the families. And so and most of these rallies, if not all of these rallies were completely engaged emotionally and psychologically in that.
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Unknown
And everything happened in a short period of time and the full scale, intense war in Gaza and then the war against Hezbollah and and with Iran. And then came President Trump with his own plan. And then he was able to release the hostages. And and people started to ask, what's going on here? I mean, you know, is it our government's plan or is it president of the United States?
00:10:11:14 - 00:10:42:11
Unknown
And people were all the time overwhelmed psychologically and emotionally with everything that happened. And still there still are. And with that kind of overwhelming period of time, we are approaching again elections in Israel very soon. So in about it's hard to know in Israel, but in about something between 4 to 7 months, it will either be before the summer, after the summer, but not later than October 2026.
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Unknown
Hopefully, hopefully. I'm saying just because you know that it that's the term according to our laws should, should, should end. We're going towards elections and I would like to really suggest an analysis or assessment. You know, as much as it it's really hard to do. So what would actually motivate people this time in the Who to vote for?
00:11:10:05 - 00:11:53:03
Unknown
The Israeli political system is very complicated, as we all know how to predict. But I would argue that the psychological health quake, I would say that we experienced in that short period of time before and during and after the war, and that would really be in people's minds and hearts when they're going to vote. And if I were the heart of the political scientist for a second and I follow surveys and polls, I would tell you that at the end of the day, the question who is going to get elected or what kind of government we are going to have in Israel is very much dependent on a on a segment of the political map,
00:11:53:03 - 00:12:24:17
Unknown
which is the center right, because the center right haven't met the mind who who to vote for. They are not going to vote for the left. They are not going to vote for to the extreme right. They are going to vote for somewhere some political parties between the center and the right. And the surveys show very, I would say, focus kind of picture what the swing voters from the center right have in minds and what they want to see in the next government.
00:12:24:19 - 00:12:46:07
Unknown
They want to see for things. They want to see a leadership that, as human, takes responsibility for what's going on. They want to see relationship that would put always the good of the nation and the state before the good of the personal, personal and political interest of a leader. They want to see. They want to see unity. They want to see solidarity.
00:12:46:07 - 00:13:12:19
Unknown
They want to see again someone who is, you know, kind of uniting the nations and the society, and they want to see some kind of plan for the future, some kind of vision of what's going to happen not only in Israel but in the region. So I don't know who they're going to vote for, but you can, together with me, assume who they're not going to vote for, and therefore it's going to be interesting.
00:13:12:19 - 00:13:42:12
Unknown
And I assume, again, very I'm being very careful because who knows. But I do think that according to the polls and to the surveys consistently, we see that we're going to experience some kind of political change in Israel in the next, in the near future. And and when I mentioned that they want to see what kind of of vision, of what kind of plan the government has for the region, it brings me to share with you.
00:13:42:12 - 00:13:56:21
Unknown
I would like to share with you something which, again, sometimes I feel that I'm wearing my academic hat and sometimes my my public or political. Here is a combination.
00:13:56:23 - 00:14:37:22
Unknown
The Middle East. Why the Israeli government does not have a plan, a consistent strategic plan for the for the Israel's position in the Middle East. What Israel wants to achieve politically because military wise, we know that we need to win any war and we need to take care of security. But what's happening in the region and what kind of initiatives we should and we take, we should take and we should put on the table for the public before the elections.
00:14:38:00 - 00:15:08:11
Unknown
Here is a very, very interesting thing and kind of observation. David Ben-Gurion, back in 1953, has defined by himself, by the way, the Israel's national security doctrine and the doctrine, the national security doctrine of Israel is based, according to David Ben-Gurion, on three major pillars in Hebrew. It sounds very appealing to.
00:15:08:12 - 00:15:40:16
Unknown
Meaning early warning, effective deterrence, and decisive victory in the battlefield. And for years and years and years that has been Israel's national security doctrine. And, you know, in a country like Israel, you don't you can't really find many doctrines. Right? But that was I mean, the the security, the, the establishment security establishment is still very, very devoted and committed to to the doctrine should be that way.
00:15:40:18 - 00:16:11:03
Unknown
Along the years, there was a committee in the Knesset headed by Dan Meridor, and they added another pillar to the to the doctrine. They added Haganah defense due to the development of weapons, ballistic missiles and the fact that the battlefield is not any more on the only the front, but also civilian population, center of civilian population, then we need a pillar in our doctrine, which is defense.
00:16:11:03 - 00:16:37:14
Unknown
And they add a defense and that's it. And ever since, nothing has been added to the doctrine. And I asked myself, and I would like to ask you also and to share with you that that the wonder what is missing, something is missing in the doctrine. And I'll tell you what I think is missing. What is missing is what we call in the academia a smart power concept.
00:16:37:18 - 00:17:06:12
Unknown
We have we have a very, very you know, I would say there is a huge track record for our heart power, military might, cutting edge intelligence, winning battles, initiating military campaigns, hard power. We also have some soft power. You know, we do have a diplomacy. We do have a diplomatic I myself served in, but we don't have the combination of it.
00:17:06:13 - 00:17:37:22
Unknown
We don't have what we call smart power. We don't use our our brains and minds and vision when we go to war in order to have that vision and create it to what we want, we really want to achieve diplomatically and politically. And therefore it's not the only reason. But that's one of the reasons why the Israeli government did not have and still doesn't have any plan for the day after.
00:17:38:00 - 00:18:07:21
Unknown
Everyone is really focused on the war and the winning the war, which is very important. But it's not enough. Israel doesn't have a plan and a program to use a smart power to fight hate, hate and anti-Semitism to help fighting to help the Jewish communities around the world to fight it. We don't have a strategy. While we do have a very, very sophisticated, effective military strategy, we don't have those strategies.
00:18:07:23 - 00:18:36:00
Unknown
And due to the psychological earthquake, which I described, I think that even if not in these very words, but I think that people now expect that the next leadership, the next, the next government of Israel would come up with some kind of smart power strategy. And people would ask themselves and they would ask the candidates, the heads of the political parties now in the election, what are you going to do?
00:18:36:01 - 00:19:01:11
Unknown
Where are you taking us? Because this is a very, very, as I said, dramatic, shifting moment for Israel. We we feel that we are reshaping, I would say, the direction of where we we need to reshape the direction of what kind of identity we want to our country, what kind of future we want to for, for ourselves and for the region and so on and so forth.
00:19:01:12 - 00:19:04:08
Unknown
And.
00:19:04:10 - 00:19:46:08
Unknown
Part of that psychological effect is a cognitive dissonance that most of these rallies experience. I'll share with you. How can it how can it be that the same, same country that launched that, I don't know, maybe one of the most sophisticated operations ever, the pager operation in Lebanon against Hezbollah? How how is it possible that the same country failed in October 7th, the way we failed everyone the intelligence, the military, the government, everyone.
00:19:46:10 - 00:20:15:11
Unknown
And within that dissonance, and there is no answer, right? I mean, it's probably there is answer very complicated, but I don't have it. There isn't some kind it must be some kind of explanation, which again, I believe it's more in a psychological arena than on the strategic political arena. Right. But within that is also the question what happened to the at least to the psychological contract between the people in the nation?
00:20:15:12 - 00:20:46:09
Unknown
You know, we grew up in Israel knowing for sure that what happened in the in the Holocaust and what happened and what brought to the establishment of the state of Israel thousands years of diaspora, we are indigenous to our homeland. It's very clear. It's also clear that once we establish a country in a state, we have a government, that its first obligation is that we, we the people are going to, to, to, to, to the army.
00:20:46:10 - 00:21:20:04
Unknown
We are sacrifice. We are willing to sacrifice ourselves for our friends and families and the society in the nation. The government has to be at least willing and and then being able to defend our civilians. If something like October 7th is happening half an hour, our two hours. But it's unmanageable that the country, you know, the government, the state wouldn't do anything for the entire day and wouldn't function for the months after.
00:21:20:04 - 00:22:06:14
Unknown
And the civic society actually jumped and took the the control. And what's going on, it's it's really psychologically I'm not talking politically. I'm not talking strategically. I'm not talking legally. I'm talking psychologically. Psychologically. This is breaking a contract, a trust, and that will be in people's minds and hearts when they will go to vote. And so when I think about, all right, so people will go to vote and then a new government, maybe the same government, I don't know what's going to happen, but a new government would take place, come to power in in the fall.
00:22:06:16 - 00:22:34:05
Unknown
What. And then we have the plan in Gaza, what's going to happen in the region? And allow me to kind of, again, suggest a little analysis that then will bring me to what I think that the Israeli future government should do, because I don't see the Israeli, the current government doing anything before the elections, which will have long term consequences.
00:22:34:05 - 00:23:05:16
Unknown
So the Middle East. We we read news, we listen to news. We know many things about the Middle East. But still, let me take you up to bird eye view and suggest something. Let's look at the history of the Middle East. And let's realize and you know and be aware that along the history of the Middle East, by the way, when when we speak about the Middle East, we speak about 500 million people, half a billion people, more or less.
00:23:05:18 - 00:23:45:10
Unknown
But when we when we look at the history of the Middle East, we see three state entities that has been have been sustainable along the history Egypt. You know, we know a lot about ancient Egypt and its its role in the not only in the region but in the world, the Ottoman Empire and the Persian Empire. Now, out of these three and and of course, in the modern history, nowadays, the Ottoman Empire is we can say that Turkey is the result of the Ottoman Empire.
00:23:45:14 - 00:24:12:21
Unknown
Iran is the result of the new generation of of the Persian Empire, and Egypt is Egypt. Out of 2 or 3 these three entities, one is Arab, two are Muslims, but not Arab. Right. So I would like to argue that Turkey and Iran have never actually gave up on the vision and the ideology and the dream to become again empires.
00:24:12:23 - 00:24:36:06
Unknown
And before we start analyzing what's going to happen, which countries are moving where, and we need to take that into consideration. We have three major forces in the Middle East, out of which two are dreaming to become again empires, and where they would do everything they can in order to accomplish that. It's in the beliefs, it's in the ideology.
00:24:36:06 - 00:25:04:11
Unknown
So when we think about Turkey, I will say a few words about Turkey later if I have time. But, you know, they don't see themselves as local and not even a regional player. They see themselves a global player, a global act. Same thing with Iran, right? So we just need to take it into consideration. When you think about the Iranian regime negotiating with the American administration, they don't see themselves as a local little actor.
00:25:04:16 - 00:25:28:17
Unknown
It's 93 million people in the Middle East based on a legacy and history of an empire. They are not going to, you know, to, to, to, to give up so quickly. We need to we need to really understand that when we are going to analyze what's going to happen. And so.
00:25:28:19 - 00:26:16:21
Unknown
Again, let's look at the history just to, you know, few moments in the history of the Middle East to maybe to help us understand what's going on today. Let's go back to 1979. I came to power in Iran in 1979, and he proved to the entire world that you can rule a modern state by the law of the Sharia, and that revolution actually inspired so many other actors in the, in the world in the I mean, in that part of the world, at least when Osama bin laden moved to Afghanistan through Sudan, spent a few years in Sudan in the 90s and then moved to Afghanistan, and they started to plan the nine over 11
00:26:16:22 - 00:26:34:20
Unknown
terror attack. He was inspired. He's not Shia Islam, but he's Sunni. But he's but he was inspired by the by the Islamic revolution of the 1979 and the Middle East started to, I'm sorry, started to to to.
00:26:34:22 - 00:27:01:03
Unknown
To to be what we or to be the front of what we consider clash of civilizations then. And the clash of civilizations is still there. It is still there. Some actors in the Middle East have moved, you know, and became much more pragmatic and seeking stability. But some actors in the Middle East are still very revolutionary in their minds and in the ideology.
00:27:01:03 - 00:27:35:00
Unknown
And again, we need to take it into consideration. So that was 1979. I, you know, let me take you fast forward 12 years later, 1991, from the end of the Second World War until 1991, the world was divided, right? It was a Cold War between the Western block and the Soviet Union. Right now, 1991 was the year that the Soviet Union has collapsed and the Middle East has been, the way I see it always some kind of a reflection of what's going on in the world in the Cold War.
00:27:35:01 - 00:28:08:09
Unknown
And then the Soviet Union has collapsed. And there was an unprecedented and great opportunity for the United States, for the US to to really become the only global power in the region, in the Middle East. And they did I mean, you know, remember President Bush 41 and James Baker is secretary of state, and they came to to Shamir then and to other regimes in the and they started the Madrid Peace Conference and they started and, and they had a war against the first war against Saddam Hussein, 1991.
00:28:08:11 - 00:28:31:23
Unknown
And they did. But along along the time, they kind of excuse me for being a little simplistic here, but this kind of lost interest and, you know, because they got in trouble in Iraq, they got they were trying to really Soviet Union was not in a picture anymore. The US was trying in other places to create some kind of regional order.
00:28:32:01 - 00:28:38:11
Unknown
It was very challenging what happened in Iraq and in Afghanistan and all that. And then.
00:28:38:12 - 00:28:44:23
Unknown
They kind of withdrew from the region, you know. And so.
00:28:45:01 - 00:29:19:19
Unknown
In 2011, we had another historic moment, a game changer, actually, in the region without any global power in the region. We had what we call the Arab Spring protests of millions of people throughout the region, causing the fall of some of the regimes and people who went out to to overthrow the regimes. They did so, but they were not ready with other structures and other, you know, stable groups that would take over.
00:29:19:19 - 00:29:47:02
Unknown
So what happened that in some places when the regime throughout the Middle East, the regimes have fallen, and then there was a vacuum for a while, and who took advantage of it? Iran and in Iraq, in Yemen, in other places, Iran was then able to really build a very effective proxies that are the proxies that today Israel is facing.
00:29:47:04 - 00:30:18:04
Unknown
And so if you look at the Middle East today, you see two main axis, one axis, I would call it the axis of stability. Israel is a member, I would say, of that axis, as well as Jordan and Egypt and other Sunni Sunni states, Saudi Arabia for, for in my opinion, is part of it, not fully, but on the way hopefully.
00:30:18:06 - 00:30:47:02
Unknown
And others on the other side of the equation, there is another axis in the Middle East, and I would call it instability or an axis of disruption led by Iran. And, and then the proxies. And in between there are some what used to be states and became all kind of different frictions of states like Syria today in Lebanon and Iraq to a certain extent, and others.
00:30:47:02 - 00:31:32:05
Unknown
And Turkey is there as an autonomous, I would say, autonomous strategic actor in the region. Again, let's not forget they they are part of NATO. They want to again become empire, and they're there so that that's more or less the dynamic and the structure of the Middle East of today. And therefore it is so important to to realize or to acknowledge that there is an opportunity at the moment if the Iranian regime is going to fall at some point and I'll say a few words about then again, it could be an historic moment in the region that would would be a game changer.
00:31:32:05 - 00:32:01:01
Unknown
Again, I'm not saying it will be more stable. I'm not going to. Who knows who will replace the regime? I know who most of the people out of Iran would like to see in Iran, but I don't know what will happen. But we are in a very dramatic moment, shifting moment in the Middle East. And and when I go back to Gaza, I said, okay, so here's the local thing, the local, the local front that we are now focusing on, while at the same time we need to deal with the entire region and with Iran.
00:32:01:01 - 00:32:34:02
Unknown
And so in Gaza, based on what I just described, the lack of any plan for the day after are now around the plan of President Trump with a Board of Peace. It's a I hope, I think most of the Israelis hope and most of probably the Jewish people around the world hope that it will succeed. But if you ask me if, if, if I understand the details, if I understand the roadmap, if I understand if there is a tangible if there is a realistic plan, I don't know.
00:32:34:03 - 00:33:00:18
Unknown
And I don't have any indication that it is. So it's on one hand create some hope. On the other hand, worrisome. We don't know. I know what I'm worried the most. I'm worried again, this is not a plan initiated by my own government. It's a problem for us. It's going to be a problem for us even if the plan is successful.
00:33:00:20 - 00:33:40:16
Unknown
So so so so this is Gaza and we spoke about about Iran and about the region. And then I want to really say something about our the relationship between Israel and the Jewish world. I think that the elections in Israel, as I said, would open some opportunities, first of all, for healing Disraeli society and also to reshape in many ways the relationship between Israel and the Jewish communities around the world.
00:33:40:16 - 00:34:07:05
Unknown
I think it's about time that Israel would be grateful and and that and that appreciation would really be translated into a policy Israel should embrace, you know, all streams of the Jewish communities in the Jewish world and not just the Rabbinical Orthodox, you know, streams that's, that's, that's and this is my my personal. But it's not just personal.
00:34:07:08 - 00:34:32:23
Unknown
I think it's strategic for Israel. I think this is the right way to do. And we have an opportunity. We may have an opportunity to do so if we'll have a new government. And so I you know, if you ask me what, what's going to happen. So let's focus first of all on the next few days, what's going to happen with Iran?
00:34:33:01 - 00:35:08:23
Unknown
I would say that there are four scenarios that I would like to I don't know what will happen, but I would say that there are four possible scenarios. Let me share them with you. And let me tell you what I think each one of the scenarios will do to Israel. The first scenario is very bad for Israel, and the scenario is that there will be a, you know, some kind of agreement, but the agreement will be partial and we deal only with the nuclear, and we'll not put an end to the completely to the nuclear facilities and abilities of Iran.
00:35:09:02 - 00:35:30:17
Unknown
And then the by list, the capabilities of Iran and the proxies are not going to be part of the agreement. Could be I hope it's not going I mean, I think there's just minor chances that few chances that it will happen. But it's a scenario and we need to we need to take it into consideration. The other scenario is not far from this scenario, and it's even even worse.
00:35:30:19 - 00:35:54:16
Unknown
The other scenario is that there will be a limited attack on Iran by the US, limited attack that will not cause the falling of the regime, and then there will be a partial agreement. So Israel so the Iranians are going to shoot missiles on Israel. Israel is going to pay the price without getting anything in exchange, because at the end of the day, the same kind of partial agreement would be achieved.
00:35:54:18 - 00:36:31:05
Unknown
Another scenario which you we can think if it's good or bad, is the continuation of of of of the current situation more or less meaning the regime would stay in Iran, no agreement but no attack. Some kind of, you know, everyone is going to go back to and but there are no lifting of sanctions because what is the most problematic part in the other scenarios, which I just mentioned, the most problematic part is that in any agreement being achieved, the sanctions, you know, the pressure on Iran is going to be lifted.
00:36:31:06 - 00:36:59:20
Unknown
And if the pressure is going to be lifted, we you know, we really lost all the leverage that we have. So if the situation is staying, yes, as is, you know, then at least with a time, there is a good chance that with the economic, with the sanctions and pressure, the regime will fall. What is the best case scenario, the most realistic, best case scenario?
00:36:59:22 - 00:37:33:17
Unknown
I think that the best case scenario for Israel and it's going to be painful, but it's still the best case scenario, is that the US would launch a heavy, long and serious attack on Iran, and we continue to put the pressure military and economically up to the point where if the regime is not falling, at least really they become very, very, very weak and the people of Iran would feel secure enough to go again on the streets and take over.
00:37:33:19 - 00:37:48:23
Unknown
It's going to be painful, it's going to be long, it's going to be war. It's going to be people are going to get killed in Israel. But strategically for Israel, that would be the scenario which I think we need.
00:37:49:01 - 00:38:16:17
Unknown
Out of the options that we have. Right. So we are moving very soon to the to the second part of questions and answers. I just want to again tell you how how lucky I feel that you invited me to be here and the opportunity to meet you and to speak with you. And thank you so much for coming and let's go to a conversation, okay.
00:38:16:19 - 00:38:52:08
Unknown
I want to begin by I guess I'll ask you about three questions, and then you can take them however you want. And then hopefully we're collecting some cards from the audience. Good. And I'll get to your questions. Your questions are more important than mine. I'm sure you spoke last night at another event, and you mentioned in your talk that you felt that the new Israeli government should take the initiative to put something on the table, and you suggested maybe even dusting off the Arab Peace Initiative from 2002 Saudi, then the Arab peace.
00:38:52:13 - 00:39:15:01
Unknown
If you could talk about that a little bit more, why you think that would be something a new government should consider? Number one. Number two, we are so happy to be sitting here tonight for the first time in almost 20 years with no fame in Gaza. It's incredible.
00:39:15:03 - 00:39:45:21
Unknown
And following the following, the return of the last non-living hostage who came home finally, we're now supposed to move to phase two of the Trump 20 point plan. Phase two is supposed to involve a Hamas giving up power and disarming. And I have a very simple question who and how is going to disarm Hamas? And then third, the West Bank all of a sudden is really heating up.
00:39:45:22 - 00:40:15:17
Unknown
We have a settler violence that is very, very terrible with impunity. We have the government now increasing, maybe in violation of the Oslo Accords, certain areas of control in the West Bank. And we have some very, very, very hard line statements coming from the PA as well. So API Gaza, West Bank.
00:40:15:19 - 00:40:38:16
Unknown
What, you know, what can I do? I need to put everything in context. So just a short context for the for the API. For many, many years there has been a debate in Israel. How can we achieve peace with our neighbors? Should it be, should we start with bilateral agreement with the Palestinians and then go to the region?
00:40:38:21 - 00:41:20:05
Unknown
Should we start with something more comprehensive and regional context and again, and then put pressure or encourage the Palestinians to join? And, you know, there are two peace treaties with for that Israel has signed with Egypt back in 26 of March 1979, with Jordan back in 26 of October 1994, and the Oslo Accords, that we all know what happened to the Oslo Accords other than those peace treaty, there's only has been only sincere initiative that has been put on a table for Israel and for the region and for the Palestinians.
00:41:20:10 - 00:41:53:22
Unknown
And it has been the Saudi peace initiative that the Saudis initiated and submitted actually to the Arab League back in March 2002, 26, and then on the following day, on the following day, the Arab League actually adopted and accepted that, and it became the Saudi Arab Peace Initiative. And that initiative has kind of laid down the roadmap of a combination of the bilateral and the regional agreement.
00:41:53:22 - 00:42:29:12
Unknown
So it includes the Palestinians and it includes the region. And it never they never got any response, serious response for from Israel and from other stakeholders in the region. Therefore, last night I said, look, I really hope that the Israeli government would initiate a plan. Now, the context I wanted to and the other part of the context I wanted to, to say is that there is no trust at the moment in Israel that we have a sincere and serious partner on the other side of the table.
00:42:29:13 - 00:42:52:10
Unknown
After October 7th, very few, if any Israeli would believe that if the government would put some kind of a plan on the table, there will be someone from the other side who's going to to agree to negotiate, let alone reach an agreement with us at the moment. But you know what? It matters. But it doesn't release the government from responsibility to put something on the table.
00:42:52:16 - 00:43:36:10
Unknown
And so if the government would put something on the table and say, listen, we understand that there is no partner, but this is our plan. This is our strategy. This is our vision. And we don't put it off the table because it's there. We believe that this is what needs to happen in the Middle East. But given that the government is not going to do that, then my suggestion is at some point, you know, with hoping that there will be some trust regained and rebuilt to and if the Saudis are joining, are joining the Abraham Accords or other kind of mechanism, then I would say, let's invite the Saudis to to bring again the peace
00:43:36:10 - 00:44:04:19
Unknown
initiative, because it's really important that the initiative would come from the Arab side and not necessarily from the Israeli or from the American of the European side. So there is no momentum at all now, but hopefully there will be a momentum after the elections. And and then you know, why the plan, Trump's plan in Gaza is going is going on and being hopefully implemented.
00:44:04:21 - 00:44:38:06
Unknown
The second question, who is going to disarm Hamas? I know only one side or one, you know, stakeholder in the region that can do that. And this is IDF. Nobody else can actually, you know, by force this arm Hamas and even for IDF. Look, after two years of very intense war, we we haven't managed to do so. Hamas is still they stand on its own feet, although they are very much weaker than they were.
00:44:38:08 - 00:45:03:09
Unknown
So I would argue that Hamas, when we speak about this arming Hamas, we should really be more realistic. And we should ask ourselves, first of all, what exactly we want to who I mean, where our focus is going to be. Hamas is a movement and Hamas has a military arm. Our focus should be the military arm of Hamas.
00:45:03:13 - 00:45:29:19
Unknown
Unfortunately, I don't think we can actually get rid of a movement supported by people. I'm not saying we should treat that movement as a partner, but I'm saying our focus should be disarming Hamas. And if the international mechanism that is built is being built now by President Trump and other other partners, is not going to do so, we will have to do so with all the price that we need to pay for it.
00:45:29:19 - 00:45:42:08
Unknown
But it will it will have to be done. The military arm of Hamas needs to get destroyed and needs to get this arm West Bank, then the West Bank. The West Bank.
00:45:42:10 - 00:46:15:21
Unknown
A little bit of context. I'm sorry. We all know that every time when we spoke with a Palestinian Authority, when the PLO, we got in response to terrorism and but at the same time, we all know or we should know that the collaboration, the local operation is not the good, but cooperation between between the security forces, our security forces and the PLO security forces are very productive in, in, in preventing terror attacks.
00:46:15:23 - 00:46:40:01
Unknown
So we need to come to decision whether we should again invite them, invite them to be partners to anything we're going to do. My answer is yes. We will have to. We will have to. We'll have to. You know, they're not our friends in a way, our enemies. But what can you do? You want to achieve some agreement and arrangements.
00:46:40:01 - 00:46:50:21
Unknown
You need to speak with an enemy that, to a certain extent, at least, recognizes your right to exist, right?
00:46:50:23 - 00:47:16:02
Unknown
You know, if you ask me if I think that the PLO accepts our right to exist, I have no indication for it at all. But again, it's a very, very cruel. It's not a game, but it's a very cool game of choosing between very, very bad options. At some point, the West in the vis a vis the West Bank, we will have to negotiate with our enemy, which is the Palestinian Authority.
00:47:16:02 - 00:47:43:09
Unknown
Again, I don't know if it will be Mahmoud Abbas. It will probably be. There will be other people. But among the Palestinian political and military and security and society, I think that the group that we should negotiate with in the near future is the Palestinian Authority. Nobody else. Okay. I think we've got the questions coming. It's okay. Lots of questions.
00:47:43:10 - 00:48:16:22
Unknown
Let me start looking through them while you answer this one. It felt kind of that Saudi Arabia was inching toward the Abraham Accords during the few months prior to October 7th, 2023. The Biden administration was really pushing the Saudis in that direction. And now we're hearing sermons in Saudi mosques that are very anti-Israel. We're seeing in the Saudi media very anti-Israel commentary and content.
00:48:17:00 - 00:48:47:06
Unknown
Saudis seem to be moving toward the direction of Qatar and moving away from potential normalization with Israel. The Saudis, in great tension right now with the UAE, the charter member of the Abraham Accords. Please give us a sense of where you think Saudi Arabia, Mohammed bin Salman, is going. First of all, I think that Saudi Arabia really worried and afraid, I would say, in the face of what's going to happen with Iran.
00:48:47:08 - 00:49:12:08
Unknown
They have their own, they have their own interests, they have their own. They need to, you know, they don't want to be caught up in that mess, that it's going to be most likely created in a very near future. So when you see a statement and when you see some kind of a political expression of coming out from the Saudi Arabia, we need to again take that into consideration.
00:49:12:10 - 00:49:45:11
Unknown
At the same time, look at the relationship that has been built between Saudi Arabia and the United States. And so it's based on a lot of interest, different interest and on on momentum again, in the history. So at some point, I think that it's likely that we would see the Saudis coming to the table agreeing to, you know, be more moderate in the statements, you know, at least at the beginning, and then maybe normalize relations with Israel.
00:49:45:12 - 00:50:15:06
Unknown
I am not sure. But I tell you what, I my guesstimate is that they are not going to wait for the Palestinians. I don't think that the barrier between Saudi Arabia and Israel is the Palestinian, the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians. So there are other interests and there are other things, and I'm not sure when and if they will come to the table, but even when they will come to the table, it will not necessarily bring a precondition to Israel.
00:50:15:08 - 00:50:37:20
Unknown
Reach an agreement with the Palestinians. Okay. Let me thank you. Audience. These questions are amazing. There's no way we're going to have time to get to all of them. So here, if I can make a commitment on your behalf, I'm going to type up all these questions. I'm going to submit them to Ambassador Hoffman, and we will post on our website his answers to all the questions that we're not able to ask today.
00:50:37:22 - 00:50:58:09
Unknown
That's what that that that is that is wonderful. I was just I was just thinking, he's going to say that we were going to invite you again and you'll be here next month. Exactly. No, I would. I'd be happy to do so. So we have a couple of questions from students, and I forgive me, but I always want to get the student questions in.
00:50:58:11 - 00:51:23:09
Unknown
And I have a very important question about the violence in the Arab sector inside Israel. We had an amazing presentation here at the Nazarene Center on Monday, featuring people that are very deeply involved in that walk of life in Israel, the Arab on Arab violence and towns like Tira and Taib in the center has really gotten out of control.
00:51:23:09 - 00:51:53:23
Unknown
There have been joint Arab-Jewish demonstrations in Tel Aviv demonstrating against the violence. Why is that happening? And let me ask you one more question. This one from a student who's wondering if you had to put your bet on one person to be the next prime minister of Israel. Who would that be? Students ask the best questions.
00:51:54:01 - 00:52:15:13
Unknown
The issue of the of the violence among the Arab communities in Israel is very painful and very and very timely. It's getting worse as we speak. You know, it has to do with several, several, I would say several levels. First of all.
00:52:15:15 - 00:52:44:00
Unknown
It's not the only thing, but I will start with it. We're talking about policy and priorities of the government in order to fight that kind of phenomena and organized crimes and, and the development of these conflicts that are going out of control. And the collaboration between those groups with Jewish groups on the organized crime in the cities, in the Jewish cities.
00:52:44:02 - 00:53:06:05
Unknown
It has you have to invest resources. You have to you have to decide that this is the first thing on your priority. If you're a minister of online security and it's not the case, it's not the case at all. And so the police, which really, you know, believe me, I, I, you know, my heart goes to the police.
00:53:06:06 - 00:53:30:06
Unknown
You know, I love them. They the efforts the police is doing in it is unbelievable. You know, and we have a great police in Israel and they doing the best they can in order. But it's not it's not enough. It has to come from the policy, from the policy makers, from from the budget. And again, talking about strategy and vision.
00:53:30:06 - 00:54:02:17
Unknown
And the most important thing the leaders should be involved in that policy making the leaders of the Arab communities, the Arab leaders, they have to be part of it. You know, it has to do with the culture. It has to do with, with, with, you know, painful feelings that, you know, with relations within, within the communities. And, you know, how can you do that without really inviting the leadership to be part of it?
00:54:02:19 - 00:54:22:21
Unknown
So there's no simple solution, but there is a direction that I think we should take. And this is combining all the things that I mentioned together. Can a new government be formed with the kind of government you are aspiring to, without the support of the Arab parties?
00:54:22:23 - 00:54:36:08
Unknown
Again, it's a good question. I don't think that a new government can actually came to power, as we say, without any support from the Arab sector. But at the same time.
00:54:36:09 - 00:55:00:04
Unknown
Usually the I mean, usually, I mean, this is the kind of the name of the game in the political map, but this is something that both sides respected the most of the times. The Arab political parties are not getting in the government. Again, I don't have time to explain why, but there are times that they are supporting the government from the outside.
00:55:00:04 - 00:55:21:04
Unknown
And to be honest, I, as an Israeli citizen, you know, it's not a question of right and left. I would like to be I would like to see the involvement of the Arab leaders political leadership in what's going on. You know, it's really important for these rally society. So you very cleverly avoided the question about who will be the next prime minister.
00:55:21:06 - 00:55:49:13
Unknown
But we'll park that for a minute because there are some really I mean, these are fantastic questions, everyone. Thank you so much. So thoughtful. One thing we haven't talked about is the issue of Palestinian refugees. And when the Oslo Accords were negotiated, the Declaration of Principles in 1993, the interim agreement in 1995, both agreements deferred for the future permanent status negotiations.
00:55:49:14 - 00:56:18:16
Unknown
A number of a number of issues Jerusalem, borders, etc. and refugees. By the way, the Accords were careful to say that Jewish refugees from Arab and North African countries were also included in that term. But the refugee problem is not going to go away. And do you have any thoughts about how the next Israeli government might address that problem as part of a larger package deal?
00:56:18:18 - 00:57:01:15
Unknown
A little bit of context. There is a UN resolution 194 that was passed back in 1948. I think of 49, 49, 49 about about the issue of the refugee. I, you know, let me instead of sharing thoughts, let me share some information during the negotiations, the rounds of negotiations that we had with the Palestinians, in principle, it has has been agreed upon that there will be some kind of compensation mechanism when there was a momentum to speak about those issues.
00:57:01:19 - 00:57:37:13
Unknown
But I think that there is no Israeli government, and I think rightly so. No Israeli government would, did or will in the future accept the returning of the families of the refugees back to Israel. It's not going to happen. And I think that again, during the rounds of the denigration of the Palestinians, we made it very clear and as far as I understand and the stood then the situation and still understand it, the Palestinians understand it as well.
00:57:37:14 - 00:58:13:00
Unknown
Yes, they they they demand it and they claim that this is, you know, we should still need to address and resolve this issue. But there were talks about all kind of mechanism of compensation, rather than getting people back to, to, to the, within the borders of, of the state of. Yeah, yeah. You mentioned resolution 194, which defined refugee, Palestinian refugee as someone who was alive in 1948, left their home in 1948 and desires to return and live in peace with their neighbors.
00:58:13:01 - 00:58:47:07
Unknown
That was the original were obviously many iterations past that original definition, by the way, Steven. So in the Saudi peace initiative, which which I mentioned, there is a sentence of phrase saying that that issue should be resolved in the spirit of that resolution. Correct. Which leaves some room for negotiation and for. Yeah. So we're going to shift gears now, a lot of questions about the dean, the controversy about military service for the haredim, the political power of the Orthodox rabbinate.
00:58:47:08 - 00:58:57:04
Unknown
Where are we going to end up with this five, ten, 20 years from now?
00:58:57:06 - 00:59:31:04
Unknown
When I was in the Knesset, we were part of a government that were not part of that government. That was a very short term. And the government, you know, the Prime Minister decided to refer to go again for elections and, and, and, and then again, the government look, they, they the, you know, the tradition, the tradition, the history of the political dynamic in Israel is that the demons have been the power of veto, right?
00:59:31:09 - 00:59:59:17
Unknown
On the political map. I don't see that changing, to be honest, because our system, our political system still allows sectorial little kind of small, medium sized political parties to be part of the coalition and to cause a situation where the government is dependent on them. And so the are the only, maybe only sectorial, you know, political parties that are okay with both sides.
00:59:59:17 - 01:00:17:19
Unknown
So if they're okay with both sides, I would, you know, sit probably in any government or almost any government and will still be the power of veto. We need to we need to make some changes to, to introduce some changes to our political system. And we haven't even talked about the fact that we need a constitution at some point.
01:00:17:21 - 01:00:20:15
Unknown
Yeah.
01:00:20:17 - 01:00:51:06
Unknown
A couple of questions from the audience about Syria regime. We've had Israeli strikes in Syria. We've had Trump embrace at the white House. We've had Turkey supplant Iran as the hegemonic power in Syria. And I want to expand that question and ask you if you could just touch briefly on each of Israel's immediate neighbors Egypt, Jordan, Syria, Lebanon, just give us kind of a bird's eye view of what is happening in those four countries.
01:00:51:06 - 01:01:24:03
Unknown
So let's let's start, you know, northwest and then Lebanon, right? Lebanon, we Hezbollah is still there. You know what? I'll say something about Lebanon and Syria, just because we have to shorten time. Lebanon and Syria, as I mentioned earlier in my remarks, not any more structured, functioning state, mere states, you know, there are different groups. And the momentum and the dynamic there is really in stable.
01:01:24:05 - 01:02:01:06
Unknown
And the instability is, you know, is a challenge on one hand, but on the other hand, there is no strong enemy that actually, you know, comes there like, you know, builds himself there to be a strategic threat. Again, Hizballah is but the Lebanese government is not. And the Syria we know what happened in Syria. So I think that the question of Syria and Lebanon are still the dynamic of it is still something that we don't know what to do with it, actually, and how to deal with it.
01:02:01:08 - 01:02:33:16
Unknown
And the time will the time will come will say what, what, what's going to happen there? Then I move to the east, to Jordan. Jordan does struggling you know, politically with the population. So you know huge number of refugees that that that came from Syria during the time of the civil war in Syria and, and the west, the eastern border of Jordan, the border between Jordan and Iraq is a challenge for the Jordanian regime.
01:02:33:16 - 01:03:07:07
Unknown
And they really need the cooperation with with us, with Israel. And we really need Israel, really needs them. And I think we should invest more in rebuilding, again, regaining mutual trust with the Jordanians, which is general regime, and we're not investing enough in it. Egypt population of maybe 160 million people, you know, Jordan and Egypt in other countries are facing a climate stress.
01:03:07:08 - 01:03:37:15
Unknown
You know, the water problem is a huge problem in the region. And Egypt really has a, you know, it's a strategic problem for Egypt. Look what happens in the relations with Ethiopia and with the dam over then. So more than ever, an innovative and creative collaboration between Israel and its neighbors is now needed not only for security reasons, but also for economic and development reasons of the region.
01:03:37:15 - 01:04:00:00
Unknown
And we need to we need to be able to to again reach the point where we really we really work on that. You know, if I, if I get a right to ask myself a question or to to refer to a question that Sean asked me about the anti-Semitism and the hate in the world, I want to say, I want to tell you something.
01:04:00:01 - 01:04:37:18
Unknown
Maybe it's not new and we all know it, but we still need to say to ourselves, it's a war. It's a war. It's not just a challenge, it's a war. It's a strategic war. I don't want to say that it's an existential war for the Jewish people, but we're not far from it. We're not far from it. And when I was in Canada, I was served in Canada, and I worked very closely with the special envoy, Professor Irwin Cotler, and others who were appointed by the by Trudeau to to fight anti-Semitism.
01:04:37:18 - 01:05:09:06
Unknown
And I have to say, each organization is really doing and working very hard on it. There is not enough cooperation, collaboration and alignment between the organizations, and we have to create a constructive dialog between all the stakeholders that fight anti-Semitism and come up with an alignment with strategy and involve not necessarily directly, but involve Israel in it as well.
01:05:09:08 - 01:05:39:01
Unknown
There are so many resources regarding intelligence. And, you know, there's there's just one little example, Israeli company called Sabra. They are in Israel and in New York, and they monitor the media and they track fake news, fake, fake whatever information and ate and all that. So at least they map out and you can get something in hands, which is really you see what's happening.
01:05:39:01 - 01:06:10:14
Unknown
So the only way to do it and to be effective is to create a umbrella, effective umbrella, and of representatives of the organizations, of all the organizations who are dedicated and engaged in it and and come up with a very strategic alliance strategy that everyone, each one is going to each each one is going to know what their own mission specific focus of what they need to do.
01:06:10:15 - 01:06:28:18
Unknown
And it all has to be orchestrated, coordinated, and that's the only way to deal with it. And so this this program you're suggesting would also, I assume, be your answer. If I were to ask you, why is Israel always losing the PR war and what can we do to help? I assume you would you would say something similar.
01:06:28:19 - 01:06:47:18
Unknown
Exactly. So who's going to coordinate this? Who's going to move this forward? It's a wonderful idea, but who's going to move it forward? Leadership bottom up I mean I mean it's not going to come from the government. It's going to come from people, you know, with energy and dedication and money and and connections. And, I mean, we need to do it.
01:06:47:18 - 01:07:27:06
Unknown
We need to do it. We the people. Yeah. I had a very this is the last question about Iran, a very interesting question from someone in the audience who is sort of asking, can the Israelis count on the US to do something, despite the massive buildup that we've seen, given that the American public is so viscerally opposed to U.S. troops on the ground to getting into becoming a broiled in another Middle Eastern war, can Israel count on American support if something happens and the Iranians start launching ballistic missiles into Israel?
01:07:27:08 - 01:08:07:00
Unknown
You know, I'll answer that question, but just just to understand, I think the way I understand the differences between the Iranian mindset and the American mindset and this is mindset. Look, back in 2006, towards the end of the Lebanon War, Second Lebanon War, there was a Lebanese politician, Shiite, who was interviewed on a Swiss television news program. And the lady asked him how long it's going to take the Hezbollah to reveal some information about the soldiers, the kidnaped, and he refused to answer.
01:08:07:00 - 01:08:34:02
Unknown
And then she kept asking him more and more questions about how long and how long and about time. At some point he said, listen, lady, you, the Swiss, may have the most precise and accurate watches in the world. We, the Shiite, have all the time in the world. When I think about the negotiation, about about the confrontation between Iran and the US, they have time.
01:08:34:04 - 01:08:58:11
Unknown
They have time, you know, they just need to not to make two the way they see it, not to make existential mistakes, but they have time. They they look at it public opinion in the US, they look at the pressure, the political pressure, the coming, you know, midterm elections. They look at the Constitution and two terms. And then the president is gone and they have time.
01:08:58:11 - 01:09:35:12
Unknown
And so it is an advantage, you know, it's a real thing. And so he asked me if Israelis can count on the US at the moment. I think, yes. And I think that I think that if war is starting tomorrow on Saturday, we and the Iranians are shooting, I think we'll see a very, very close cooperation, collaboration, and we'll get, you know, the the Americans will do anything they can in order to, to help us.
01:09:35:13 - 01:10:04:16
Unknown
Okay, I trust it. Can we please express our appreciation to invest your and.
01:10:04:18 - 01:10:36:23
Unknown
And just a couple of quick announcements before you go. Don't go yet. I neglected to thank our campus and community co-sponsors, who wonderfully allowed us to use their names to publicize the event. I want to just say a word about the late Harry C Sigman, a UCLA graduate, Harvard Law School graduate, member, elected member of the American Law Institute, became on his own, really without the infrastructure of a huge law firm to support and one of the leading experts in the United States on something very arcane.
01:10:36:23 - 01:10:59:13
Unknown
But those of us who went to law school will appreciate this. The Uniform Commercial Code, and we are benefiting from the very generous gift of his estate to enable us to bring speakers like Ambassador Huffman. So thank you to this administration. Everyone drive carefully. Be safe. Look at our website. We've got a lot of great stuff coming up in the spring.
01:10:59:13 - 01:11:18:21
Unknown
Thank you so much for being with us tonight. Thank you. Thank you so much. It's great. We have to take thank you. And you have his other Mike I do I got thank you.
01:11:18:23 - 01:11:25:23
Unknown
Thank you so much. Thank you.
01:11:26:01 - 01:11:33:01
Unknown
I can take it. Yeah. Thank you.
01:11:33:03 - 01:11:39:20
Unknown
Okay. So we can put this down here for lamb. Oh I'll take that.